Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida

Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida Betting Preview | 28th October 2017

COMBAT expert Callum Wilson takes a look at Saturday night’s UFC action.

A couple of times a year, it becomes impossible to escape from the clutches of the UFC. Months go by with a dearth of action, fleeting mixed-martial-arts cards every couple of weeks as the UFC take a breather.

The run up from now until Christmas time is not one of those periods. In fact, from this weekend starting 28th October, there are 11 UFC cards out of the next 12 weekends. Simply, a whole lot of fights.

Things kick-off with a belter in Brazil, with aggressive one-punch knock-out artist Derek Brunson taking on the home favourite Lyoto Machida. 188BET rounded up the best bets from a sizzler in Sau Paulo.

Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida | Saturday 02:00 | BT Sport

Before I go into my reasoning, let me get one thing out of the way – there is every chance Brunson ends this viciously with the first solid shot he lands. Boasting incredible fight ending power, every Brunson fight follows the same rigmarole.

Attempt to get the fight finished within the first round, with an output more similar to a 100 metre sprinter than cross-country endurance runner. The American boasts a wonderful array of knock-out victories, but has also incorporated his strong wrestling game into the equation, culminating in a fearsome adversary for Machida.

He’s very much a fighter of reckless abandon, with granite hands and a tendency to steam forward, press and get it done quickly. But with his unique fighting style, come a plethora of problems. Brunson’s hands are an enormous red flag in this scrap, but with his overbearing persona comes the issue of leaving himself wide open and susceptible to shots.

Back the boy from Brazil in his home country

With any sporting event, conditions play a massive factor in the UFC and in mixed-martial-arts. This battle is taking off in Brazil, Sao Paolo, and could play a determining factor in the outcome of the fight.

Estimates of humidity levels at the time of fighting on Saturday night equate to around 74%. Incredibly difficult conditions to fight in and when factored in with the 4,609 mile trip from North Carolina to Sao Paolo, the conditions are in Machida’s favour.

Add to that 15,000 crazy Brazilians in the Ginásio do Ibirapuera more than mouthing their moral support for Machida, I think the conditions give the Brazillian a massive edge.

Machida to make Brunson’s murderous style ineffective

At the peak of his prime, Machida walks this with a point style fighting victory. The Brazilians’ counter striking ability has been severely underestimated in the lead up to this throw-down, and I think he edges a victory out over the American.

Boasting a truly unique striking style, Machida is a veteran who has been in there with the best to ever do it. I think his experience and know-how in high calibre events will prove detrimental to a dangerous Brunson.

I’m going to be backing Machida on the money line here at 5/4, and due to the nature of Brunson’s reckless abandon style, I think the Brazilian finishes him via TKO. A huge price at 11/4 with us.

My eye is also drawn to the third round knock-out priced at a whopping 12/1.

Recommended Bets

Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida – Lyoto Machida to win (5/4)

Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida – Lyoto Machida to win via TKO/KO/Stoppage (11/4)

Derek Brunson v Lyoto Machida – Lyoto Machida to win via TKO/KO/Stoppage in the third round (12/1)