Floyd Mayweather v Conor McGregor Betting Preview | 26th August 2017
COMBAT expert Callum Wilson takes a look at the best bets available for Saturday night’s superstar bout between Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor.
They said it would never happen.
The very thought of a 40-year-old Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather coming out of retirement, ignoring the obvious plea to maintain his undefeated 49-0 record – to challenge a hungry Irishman in Conor McGregor, who wants to feast on the success of the Pretty Boy.
But alas, money talked and it did. Despite the logistical difficulties that presented with not just a cross-promotional event, but a cross-sports extravaganza, of which there have been few, they got it done.
Sure, there have been freak shows in the past – Inoki vs Ali springs to mind. But what that did not offer is the mainstream attention and revitalisation of a staggering sport in boxing, that this clash presents.
On Saturday, Mayweather and McGregor will face off in an unprecedently high stakes bout. More so for Mayweather, who puts his legacy, reputation and name on the line for a multi-hundred million pounds pay check.
For the plucky Dubliner, McGregor has not only the chance to cash a further enhancing pay check to fund his ever-growing Lamborghini collection – but the chance to silence critics from around the world, boxing media and otherwise.
McGregor landing the Money shot on Mayweather
Before I divulge my strategy to who I’m leaning towards in this fight, I’d like to make one thing clear. This is combat sports. In this case, boxing, but as with any combat sport the unpredictability is the driving force behind the ethos of why people watch fights. Anything can happen.
This isn’t teams of 11 facing off over 90 minutes, this is two men, throwing down, with the difference between being knocked unconscious and surviving – just a split second.
I repeat, anything can happen when two competitors step in the squared-circle – just look at what Buster Douglas did to Mike Tyson. The ring can be unforgiving.
With his erratic, southpaw-lead unorthodox style, McGregor presents an unexperienced but unpredictable style clash for Mayweather. The simple fact is that in his professional career, only De La Hoya has brought the fight to Money with the intensity required to win. I think Conor throws all 28-years of arduous work into the first two rounds.
Mayweather is maliciously misleading and deceptive
However, I believe that will be his downfall. There is no doubt in my mind that McGregor throws all the stamina required for 12 three-minute rounds into the first six minutes. Essentially, I believe McGregor goes for broke and throws the proverbial kitchen sink at Mayweather in the opening two rounds.
But, what we are forgetting is that Mayweather is the best defensive boxer the world has seen, certainly for the last two centuries. Fighting Floyd is like trying to punch smoke, he’s a ghost and prides himself on his ability to preserve his chin. He won’t be there.
Despite heavily favouring MMA when opposed to boxing as an entertaining sport, there are echelons in each respective profession. The sweet science has been mastered by few to the extent Mayweather has, and his ability to evade and pick off is unparalleled. His head movement will be the key in this bout, I believe, and the almost half-century of professional fights in the sport will give him the ring experience of when they get pulled into the clinch.
This isn’t MMA, and you’re separated in seconds.
Method of victory for Mayweather
Despite being a massive fan of McGregor, there is no doubt here where the smart money is. The Irishman opened as a 66.0 betting underdog when rumours of the fight murmured their way round the MMA and boxing communities. From there, a meteoric rise in stakes for the Dubliner seen a seismic shift in the betting line with Mayweather plummeting and McGregor ascending.
McGregor can now be found as small as 4.00 with most bookies. A monstrosity of a shift considering the Irishman has never had a professional bout in the boxing.
Mayweather, in my opinion, will evade and attack, and fully take over after the opening rounds. I see McGregor gassing and Mayweather taking advantage, finishing him in relatively quick succession.
For value, I’m looking at the round band betting, and I think Money manages it in six. 188BET currently has Floyd to KO Conor in rounds 4-6 at 5.50. I think there’s enormous value in a window of opportunity for McGregor. C-Mac will tire himself after two rounds, and Money will pick him off for the preceding two.
In my opinion, Mayweather flourishes against his unexperienced counterpart and after picking him off in the third and fourth, stops him in the fourth or fifth. I’m also on Mayweather to KO McGregor in the fourth round at 17.0. And finally, the Mayweather KO, TKO or disqualification with 188BET at 1.70 looks good far to tantalising to turn down.
Floyd Mayweather to win by KO in the fourth round (17.0)
Floyd Mayweather to win by KO, TKO or disqualification (1.70)