US Election Odds | The Betting Story Of Donald Trump’s Win
In the early hours of Wednesday morning (UK time) it was confirmed that Donald Trump had been elected the new US President. A straight-forward victory? Not a bit of it. Let’s take a look back at Trump’s rise to power via his odds for victory from start to finish.
The first time Donald Trump appeared in the betting for the next US President was in December 2014. He was rated a 250/1 chance to reach the White House. After all, this was a celebrity right? A man more famous for being a controversial businessman and appearing on The Apprentice and Home Alone 2.
As 2015 progressed though he became a prominent figure in the media and his right-wing rhetoric struck a chord with many disenfranchised Americans.
From a rank outsider position of 250/1 his odds tumbled and by the summer of last year he was rated just a 16/1 chance to be the next inhabitant of the White House.
Towards the end of last year Trump made some hugely controversial statements regarding building a wall around the American-Mexican border and calling for a ban of Muslim’s entering the USA.
While these words horrified many, his odds continued to shorten and by this time last year he was generally 8/1 to win the race.
Trump has rarely been out the headlines in 2016 and after achieving success in the Republican Primaries at the start of the year he was confirmed as their official candidate in July.
Since becoming the official candidate Trump has generally been priced up between 3/1 and 5/1 to triumph. Last week though a surge of bets were placed on him that saw come in to just 2/1. Was victory on?
In the 24 hours leading up to the election and indeed after the polls had closed Trump’s price continued to get bigger. He was 5/1 just before counting began and then after a strong start by Hillary Clinton his price was pushed out to as big as 11/1.
11/1 at 1am UK time on Wednesday morning, Trump was now as big a price as he’d ever been at any point in 2016. Slowly but surely though the tide was turning.
As the numbers started to turn in his favour so did his odds and taking a lead in Florida he was cut to 9/2. When his Florida lead was backed up by strong positions in Ohio and other key states then his price tumbled.
Trump’s odds hit 9/4, then 6/4 and 11/10. Within minutes he was odds on and by 3am (UK time) it was game over. Key states had been captured and Clinton had a mountain to climb.
In the vein of Leicester City’s remarkable 5000/1 Premier League title win earlier in the year Trump had defied logic and betting to grab victory. 2016 – the year when anything was possible.