Wimbledon: Men’s Winner | 2nd-15th July 2018
TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair take s a look at the men’s Wimbledon outright market, picking out his favourite fancies.
Eight-time champion Roger Federer unsurprisingly leads the outright market at a very skinny, and very opposable 31/10. Despite the obvious pedigree of the Swiss there is enough doubt raised by his recent performances to look for an alternative selection.
Federer was a beat slower than his usual level best despite victory in Stuttgart and a runner-up finish in Halle – a point confirmed by underwhelming performance data on the grass so far this season. That said, it would be a surprise to watch Federer (2/5 to win Quarter 1) succumb at an early stage as no name immediately jumps off the draw sheet as a credible alternative in his quarter.
Borna Coric (9/1 to win Quarter 1) defeated Federer in the Halle final, but his record in Grand Slams is unimpressive – winning only 42% of his main draw matches over the past 4 years.
Elsewhere, in Quarter 1, Sam Querrey (11/1 to win Quarter 1) is a potential danger having made a quarter-final and semi-final in his previous two Wimbledon visits. Querrey has had a poor 2018 sitting only 58th in the ATP Race.
The second quarter is led by Marin Cilic, who impressively defeated Novak Djokovic to win Queens Club last weekend. Every man and his dog should consider a nibble on 2017 runner-up Cilic outright (7/1).
The Croat has strong grass court form and has become a regular threat at Grand Slam level finishing quarterfinal or better in four of his last five slams. It won’t be straightforward for Cilic as he could face 2016 runner-up Milos Raonic (22/1) or 2017 grass court titleist Lucas Pouille (200/1) in the fourth round, but should he get through a semi-final encounter with Federer awaits.
Novak Djokovic is second favourite outright (11/2) but he looks a shadow of the player that sauntered to back-to-back titles in 2014 and 2015. Djokovic crumbled to the unheralded Marco Cecchinato in the French Open quarter-final, and last week he choked away an ill-deserved winning position against Cilic.
Nick Kyrgios can be found in Djokovic’s quarter and whilst the Australian’s temperament is volatile there is no doubting he has the talent to win a Grand Slam at some point in his career.
At 9/2 to win the third quarter Kyrgios is worth a small bet to get the better of Djokovic, whilst 4th seeded Alex Zverev does not impress me on grass as he does on other surfaces.
The final quarter is anchored by Rafa Nadal who at 7/1 should not be discounted outright. However, the Spaniard has only twice made the fourth round stage in the past six years and it is not unknown for him to lose at very short odds at Wimbledon.
The bottom quarter may provide an opportunity for an outsider to go deep.
Marian Cilic to win outright (7/1)
Nick Kyrgios to win the third quarter (9/2)