World Cup 2018 | Mexico v Brazil Tips | 2nd July 2018
The World Cup knockout rounds continue with Brazil versus Mexico in the all-Americas face-off. Lucas Swain-Britton (@LucasSwain95) provides us with his best bet for the match.
Not to be the bearer of bad news, but we’re over 75% of the way through the World Cup for another four years.
Writing that has almost brought a tear to my eye, but in truth this is where the tournament gets exciting. Yes, we’ve had some fantastic shocks already with Germany exiting and Argentina being on the brink, but nothing beats the knockout rounds.
You can wave goodbye to the dull matches like Belgium versus England where both sides arguably wanted to lose. Every single minute of every match is of importance to the tournament and history. It’s the biggest stage.
For Brazil, this is make or break. They aim to right the wrongs of four years ago when they were embarrassed by Germany. They have the potential to go the distance here.
In Mexico they have good opposition, but their wave of momentum took a huge hit when Sweden got the better of them 3-0.
It was a strange match where Mexico seemed to struggle against an organised defence. Their xG for the match was extremely poor as they were unable to break down an organised, disciplined and quality Swedish defence.
Te latter stages of the games is when this truly started to show as Sweden countered with aplomb and eventually breezed past the CONCACAF side to secure top spot and avoid playing the favourites.
Mexico are likely approach this match in a similar fashion to what they did against Germany, although the Brazilians are sure to be better prepared. Despite this, there are some similar characteristics of the footballing behemoths.
Mexico’s fortune came from slick counter-attacks as they managed to exploit the space vacated by the marauding Joshua Kimmich. If you look at Brazil, it’s fair to suggest Marcelo and Danilo have similar styles. Not quite to the same degree, it must be said.
Brazil too strong
With this in mind you have to give at least Mexico a chance. Many will be quick to write them off and with Brazil floating around the 1/2 mark, the market suggests there’s an implied chance of 66.7% they win.
I think Brazil win this match, and I believe the nation expects it as well. They’ve certainly struggled in some matches of this type, but Mexico are beatable.
I quite like the -1 handicap market here, I don’t have complete confidence in Brazil winning by two clear goals, one is certainly more plausible, but I fancy that a lot more than taking them on with a Mexico +1 handicap.